NRG Expert Oil Sands Report Table of Contents




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1. Executive Summary 8
2. World Oil and Gas Reserves 10
3. Definitions of Reserves 11
Some different definitions in use worldwide. 11
SPE/WPC Definitions of Reserves 12
Definitions of oil and gas reserves 12
Deterministic and probabilistic estimation of reserves 12
Proved reserves 13
Proved, proved undeveloped reserves 13
Unproved Reserves 14
Unproved Probable Reserves 14
Unproved Possible Reserves 14
Comparison of using different methods of calculating reserves 14
Calculations to determine reserve values 16
The volumetric method 16
Decline curve analysis 16
External factors affecting reserves 17
4. Non-Conventional Oil 19
Natural bitumen, tar sand, oil sand, natural asphalt – synthetic crude oil 19
Canadian Oil Sands and Venezuelan Orimulsion® 19
Synthetic crude oil 19
5. What are the oil reserves of the world? 24
6. Extraction techniques 27
7. Country Profiles 36
Canada 36
History of production of the Canadian Tar Sands bitumen 37
Athabasca 39
China 59
Congo 60
Madagascar 60
Russia 62
Trinidad & Tobago 63
USA 63
Venezuela 65
Other countries 68
8. Cost competitiveness 71
9. Barriers 80
10. Environmental Impacts 82
Tailings 83
11. The US and Canada relationship 90
12. The Main Players 100
Canada 100
Syncrude 120
Imperial Oil (Esso Imperial Oil) 126
Shell Canada Energy 140
Venezuela 163
13. Canada project list 165
14. Logistics 176
15. Glossary 200
16. Sources 201

Tables

Table 4 1: Extra-heavy oil resources, reserves and production at end 2008, million barrels
Table 4 2: Natural bitumen resources, reserves and production at end-2008, million barrels
Table 5 1: Comparison of two sets of reported oil reserves for the top ten countries, billion barrels, 2009
Table 6 1: Advantages and disadvantages of the two main in situ technologies
Table 6 2: Technologies for in situ bitumen extraction
Table 6 3: Status of upgraders in Alberta
Table 7 1: Inventory of major Alberta oil sands projects
Table 7 2: Canadian oil sands projects producing, under construction and in development
Table 7 3: Utah Tar Sands Estimated In-Place Resources
Table 7 4: Orinoco belt strategic associations
Table 7 5: Other natural bitumen and extra heavy oil reserves by country
Table 8 1: Estimates of operating cost (Opex) and supply costs by production method
Table 8 2: Alberta Oil Sands Costs / Barrel (USD 2006)
Table 8 3: Oil sands project costs
Table 9 1: Cash operating costs for the Athabasca Oil Sands Project (AOSP), USD per barrel of oil equivalent
Table 11 1: US refinery upgrades in the Mid West (PADD II) and US Gulf (PADD III)
Table 12 1: Major foreign acquisitions in Canadian oil sands in 2010
Table 12 2: Oil sands projects producing, under construction and under development by company, barrels per day
Table 12 3: Suncor’s refineries
Table 12 4: Suncor’s 2011 production outlook, barrels of oil equivalent per day
Table 12 6: Canadian Natural Resources 2011 budget for production
Table 12 7: Canadian Natural Resources’ Thermal Heavy Oil Sands Growth Plan
Table 12 10: Average daily net production from Conoco Phillips’ oil sands projects, 2009
Table 12 11: MEG Energy’s oil sands projects
Table 12 9: Cenovus Energy oil sands projects
Table 12 12: SilverBirch Energy/Teck Resources’ joint venture oil sands projects
Table 12 13: Total E&P’s Canadian projects
Table 13 1: Status of oil sands projects in Alberta, 10th December 2010
Table 13 2: Status of oil sands upgraders in Alberta, 10th December 2010
Table 14 1: Alberta oil sands pipelines
Table 14 2: Oil sands export pipelines
Table 14 3: Proposed Export pipelines
Table 14 4: Enbridge’s Athabasca operating pipelines
Table 14 5: Inter Pipelines’ projects in operation and under development
Table 14 6: Phased expansion plans for Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain expansion
Table 14 7: Ports on the West Coast of Canada
Table 14 8: Average price of oil tankers per 1 million DWT depending on the type of vessels

Figures

Figure 3 1: Annual backdated conventional oil discovery, conventional oil consumption and forecasted production and discovery
Figure 5 1: Conventional oil reserves, billion barrels, 2009
Figure 5 2: Top ten countries by oil reserves ncludng oil sands, billion barrels, 2009
Figure 6 1: Status of oil sands projects by technology, thousand barrels per day
Figure 6 2: Western Canadian oil production, thousand barrels per day, 2005 to 2025
Figure 6 3: Cyclic Steam Stimulation (CSS)
Figure 6 4: Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD)
Figure 6 5: Location of oil sands projects producing, under construction and under development
Figure 6 6: Status of in situ oil sands projects by technology, thousand barrels per day
Figure 7 1: Oil sands regime
Figure 7 2: Alberta’s bitumen resources, original oil in place, billion barrels
Figure 7 3: Chronology of development and oil sands production
Figure 7 4: Alberta oil sands projects
Figure 7 5: Grosmont Net Pay Isopach map including locations showing interest from oil sand developers
Figure 7 6: Commissioned oil sands projects in Canada, thousand barrels per day, 1999 to 2009
Figure 7 7: Forecasted number of well drilled for 2011
Figure 7 8: Oil and gas industry spending in Canada, CAD billion, 2009 to 2011
Figure 7 9: Canadian oil production, thousand barrels per day
Figure 7 10: Planned commissioning dates for Canadian oil sands projects and production, thousand barrels per day
Figure 7 11: Market Demand for Western Canadian Crude Oil – Actual 2009 versus 2015 Potential, thousand barrels per day
Figure 7 12: Location of Madagascar Oil’s five blocks
Figure 7 13: Bemolanga block in Madagascar
Figure 7 14: Distribution of speculative and measured U.S. oil sands, billion barrels of bitumen in place
Figure 7 15: Location of the Orinoco Oil Belt in Venezuela
Figure 7 16: Crude reserves in Venezuela
Figure 8 1: Crude oil and natural gas prices, 1999 to 2010
Figure 8 2: Projects and actual average IEA crude oil import price, USD per barrel, 1970 to 2030
Figure 8 3: Costs for new oil supply
Figure 10 1: Map of the Canadian oil sands
Figure 10 2: Tailings pond
Figure 10 3: Carbon dioxide emissions from the consumption of energy in Canada, million tonnes, 1980 to 2009
Figure 10 4: CO2 emissions for coal-fired and plants and oil sands projects in North America, mega tonnes
Figure 10 5: Wheel-to-wheel CO2 emissions for different sources of oil for the United States, g CO2 per MJ gasoline
Figure 11 1: Imports of oil into the USA by country and region, thousand barrels per day, 2009
Figure 11 2: Imports of Canadian oil into the USA, million barrels, 1993 to 2009
Figure 11 3: Consumption and production of oil in the USA, thousand barrels per day, 1965 to 2009
Figure 11 4: Consumption and production of oil in Canada, thousand barrels per day, 1965 to 2009
Figure 11 5: Landed price for oil imports into the US by country of origin, USD per barrel, 2009
Figure 11 6: Landed price of oil imports into the United States, USD per barrel, 1973 to 2009
Figure 11 7: Used and unused refining capacity in North America by country, thousand barrels per day, 2009
Figure 11 8: Regional oil refinery profit margins on a quarterly basis, USD per barrel, 1992 to 2009
Figure 11 9: Oil refinery capacity in the US and Canada, thousand barrels per day, 1965 to 2009
Figure 12 1: Oil imports by country, thousand barrels per day, 2009
Figure 12 2: Leases owned in a section of Athabasca
Figure 12 3: Oil sands projects producing, under construction and under development by company, thousand barrels per day
Figure 12 4: Alberta oil sands projects and upgraders, January 2011
Figure 12 5: Locations of Suncor refineries
Figure 12 6: Petro-Canada and Suncor merger timeline
Figure 12 7: Suncor-Total asset distribution
Figure 12 10: Imperial Oil’s resource development: building production volume, thousand of oil-equivalent barrels a day before royalties
Figure 14 1: Canadian & U.S. Crude Oil Pipelines – All Proposals
Figure 14 2: Canadian Energy Pipeline Association Members Proposed Crude Oil Pipeline Expansions
Figure 14 3: Phase 1 and 2 of the keystone pipeline
Figure 14 4: Phase 3 and 4 of the keystone pipeline
Figure 14 5: Enbridge’s Alberta regional infrastructure
Figure 14 6: Enbridge’s pipeline network and expansion plans
Figure 14 7: Enbridge’s Northern Gateway project
Figure 14 8: Inter Pipeline’s pipelines
Figure 14 9: Inter Pipelines’ oil pipeline growth strategy
Figure 14 10: Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain pipeline
Figure 14 11: Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain expansion
Figure 14 12: Kinder Morgan’s Express – Platte Pipeline System
Figure 14 13: Pembina’s oil sands pipeline projects
Figure 14 14: Route of Pembina’s Nipisi and Mitsue pipelines
Figure 14 15: CN’s rail network for the oil sands projects in Alberta
Figure 14 16: Shipments of petroleum products through the Port of Vancouver, thousand tonnes, 2008 to November 2010
Figure 14 17: Estimates of tanker rates from Canada to Asia, USD per barrel
Figure 14 18: Typical supply curve for a given size of fleet
Figure 14 19: Ship new build and five year asset value since 2000




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