Energy Security Table of Contents

NRG Expert provides a comprehensive analysis of the energy security industry. This energy security market research looks at; the grid, the rationale for storage, energy risks for businesses, energy shortages, energy reserves, technologies and much more. The report outlines key energy security data, statistics and market analysis.

>> Download the Brochure

>> Go Back to the Product Overview

1. Executive Summary 10
2. Energy Security 11
3. Fuel reserves 13
4. Electricity prices 22
5. Power generation capacity 24
6. Growing Shortage 37: Oil 37; Natural Gas 44; Oil and Gas 49; Coal 52; Biomass 53; Hydro 54; Uranium 54
7. Measuring energy security 55: CSI 55; Energy Security Index developed by the IEA 58; Energy Security Index for Korea based on the Hirschman–Herfindahl index (HHI) 59; Measures of Oil Import Dependence 60; Security of Gas Supply 61; US Energy Security Risk Index 62
8. Risks for the energy sector 64: Regulation & Environment. 64; Environmental pollution and liability 67; Increasing emissions performance 68; Standards 69; Uncertainty of political commitments 69; Renewable Energy Policy uncertainty 70; Policy changes 73; Oil 73; Gas 74; Technological Risks 74; Scarcity of essential mineral components 74; Financial & Investment Risks 75; Future demand uncertainty 75; Electricity 77; Impact of pricing fluctuations 77; Oil and Gas 77; Coal 80; Electricity 80; Cost of unconventional resources 81; Carbon price uncertainty 85; UN Clean Development Mechanism 85; EU Emissions Trading Scheme 85; New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme 86; Longevity 86; Carbon prices 87; Theft from Smart Grids 87; Operational Risks 89; Political threats in unstable regions 89; Drug lords 89; Pipelines 89; On land installations 89; Maritime piracy 89; Unconventional resources 90; Failing infrastructures in changing climates 90; Newer or cleaner technologies making existing infrastructure obsolete 90; Electric vehicles 91; Distributed power 92; Cyber threats to smart grids 92; Skill shortage 93; Reputational Risks 93; Environmental damage resulting from difficult to extract fossil fuels 93; Shale gas 94; Oil sands (tar sands) 94; Pollution from new technologies 95; Accidents 95; Case Studies 100; Duke Energy 100; Iberdrola 103; Peabody 103; Petrobras 104; Shell 107
9. Risks for business 109: Financial and Regulatory Risk 109; Carbon Price Uncertainty 109 Increasing Legislation and Standards on Efficiency 110; Consumer Pressure for CO2 Emissions Disclosure 111; Technological Risks 111; Safety of Smart Grid 111; Operational and Supply Chain Risks 112; Higher and Volatile Energy Prices 112; Fuel and Electricity Supply Disruptions 112; Electricity 112; Fuel 113; Lack of standardised global carbon and climate policy 114; Business Reputation 114; Scrutiny of Portfolio and Company Operations 114; Delivery of Services compromised by Energy Disruptions 114; Case Studies 114; Amtrak 114; Apple 115; British Telecom (BT) 115; Coca Cola 116; Google 116; Hapag-Lloyd 117; IKEA 117; Lufthansa 118; McDonalds 119; Proctor & Gamble (P&G) 120; Tata Steel 120
10. Water security 122
11. Sources 125

List of Tables

Table 3-1: Global Peace Index (GPI) 18
Table 5-1: Electricity supply disruptions for the first three quarters of 2011 30
Table 5-2: Ofgem’s four scenarios for the electricity grid in the UK 32
Table 5-3: Impact of different stresses for Ofgem’s four grid scenarios 33
Table 7-1: Projected import dependence of the EU and EU-30 in 1998, 2010, 2020 and 2030 55
Table 7-2: Energy diversification by selected countries based on CSI data for 2008 57
Table 7-3: CSI score for selected countries 58
Table 7-4: Energy security cost (Ci) for various disruption periods in electricity generation in South Korea 60
Table 7-5: Measures of oil import dependence. 60
Table 7-6: Risk matrix for security of gas supply 61
Table 8-1: Examples of renewable energy subsidies or target being reduced or cancelled due to economic conditions 70
Table 8-2: Measures undertaken the Brazilian government in 2010 to control regulated costs and guarantee sustainability in the electricity system, EUR million 72
Table 8-3: Frontier resources and unconventional oil and gas 81
Table 8-4: Cyber-vulnerabilities in the smart grid system 87
Table 8-5: Specific potential points of weakness in the smart grid 88
Table 8-6: Four states that sponsor terrorism according to the US Department of State 89
Table 8-7: Details of the Deepwater Horizon, Exxon Valdez and Fukushima accidents 96
Table 8-8: Proposed rate increases for Duke Energy customers for February 2012 102
Table 8-9: Peabody’s 2050 energy success, economic growth and environmental solution goals 104
Table 9-1: Estimated airline bills from the EU ETS in 2012 109
Table 9-2: BT’s energy efficiency measures 115
Table 9-3: Tata Steel’s purchased power consumption for the 2010/2011 and 2009/2010 financial years 120
Table 10-1: Water demand/impact of transportation fuels 122
Table 10-2: Water use and consumption for electric power generation

List of Figures

Figure 2-1: Supply chain in the gas sector 12
Figure 3-1: Global primary energy consumption, million tons of oil equivalent, 1965 to 2010 13
Figure 3-2: Proven oil reserves, thousand million barrels, 1980 to 2010 14
Figure 3-3: Proven natural gas reserves, trillion cubic metres, 1980 to 2010 14
Figure 3-4: R/P ratio of global oil reserves, years, 1980 to 2010 15
Figure 3-5: R/P ratio of global natural gas reserves, years, 1980 to 2010 15
Figure 3-6: Global electricity generation, TWh, 1990 to 2010 16
Figure 3-7: Spot crude prices, USD per barrel, 1972 to 2010 16
Figure 3-8: Natural gas prices, USD per million Btu, 1984 to 2010 17
Figure 3-9: Coal prices, USD per tonne, 1987 to 2010 17
Figure 3-10: Oil consumption and production in China, thousand barrels per day, 1965 to 2010 20
Figure 3-11: Oil consumption and production in India, thousand barrels per day, 1965 to 2010 21
Figure 4-1: Utility coal and petroleum stocks and stocks per electricity generated, 1949 to 2009 22
Figure 4-2: Average retail electricity prices in the US, USD cents per kWh including taxes, 1960 to 2009 23
Figure 5-1: Actual and projected world electricity, capacity, generation and consumption, MW, 1990 to 2050 24
Figure 5-2: Actual and projected electricity generation and consumption in the G8 and BRIC countries, MW, 1990 to 2020 24
Figure 5-3: Actual and projected electricity generation and consumption in North America, Europe, Asia Pacific and Middle East, MW, 1990 to 2020 26
Figure 5-4: Actual and projected world generation capacity by type, MW, 1990 to 2020 29
Figure 5-5: Peak load reduction and utility costs per energy saved, 1989 to 2008 32
Figure 5-6: Key timings for projects to fulfil future shortfalls in the UK’s electricity sector 35
Figure 6-1: Oil production and consumption, thousand barrels per day, 1965 to 2010 37
Figure 6-2: Oil refining capacity, throughput and oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, 1965 to 2010 38
Figure 6-3: Refining margins in US Gulf Coast (USGC), North West Europe (NWE – Rotterdam) and Singapore for different generic refinery configuration (cracking, hydrocracking or coking), USD per barrel, Q1 1992 to Q4 2010 39
Figure 6-4: Oil production in thousand barrels and proven reserves in billion barrels in OPEC and major non-OPEC countries at the end of 2010 40
Figure 6-5: Proven oil reserves in North America and in Major European producing countries, billion barrels, 1980 to 2010 41
Figure 6-6: Proven oil reserves by region, billion barrels, 1980 to 2010 41
Figure 6-7: Net crude oil and oil product trade movements in 2010, thousand barrels per day 42
Figure 6-8: Net oil imports for the US and Europe, thousand barrels per day, 1980 to 2010 42
Figure 6-9: Global biofuel production, thousand barrels per day, 2000 to 2010 43
Figure 6-10: Natural gas production and consumption, bcm, 1970 to 2010 44
Figure 6-11: Proven natural reserves by region, tcm, 1980 to 2010 45
Figure 6-12: Natural gas production and consumption in the US and Russia, bcm, 1970 to 2010 46
Figure 6-13: Actual and projected share of primary energy by fuel type, 1970 to 2030 48
Figure 6-14: Natural gas production and consumption in China and India, bcm, 1970 to 2010 49
Figure 6-15: Oil and gas consumption and imports as a percentage of consumption for China, Europe and the US, 1990 to 2030 50
Figure 6-16: China’s territorial claim in the South China Sea 51
Figure 6-17: Global coal production and consumption, Mtoe, 1981 to 2010 52
Figure 6-18: Indian coal production and consumption, Mtoe, 1981 to 2010 53
Figure 6-19: Global nuclear consumption based on gross generation, Mtoe, 1965 to 2010 54
Figure 7-1: CSI scores for oil in the Asia Pacific region (Australia, Japan, Korea and New Zealand), 1990 to 2008 56
Figure 7-2: CSI scores for natural gas and oil in the North America region (Canada and the United States), 1990 to 2008 56
Figure 7-3: CSI scores for natural gas and oil in selected countries in the European region, 1990 to 2008 57
Figure 7-4: US Energy Security Risk Index, 1970 to 2035 63
Figure 8-1: Global CO2 emissions, million tonnes, 1965 to 2010 66
Figure 8-2: CO2 emissions by region, million tonnes, 1965 to 2010 67
Figure 8-3: CO2 emissions in China, India and the US, million tonnes, 1965 to 2010 67
Figure 8-4: Growth in global solar and wind capacity, MW, 1996 to 2010 73
Figure 8-5: Actual and projected growth in primary energy consumption OECD and non-OECD, billion toe, 1970 to 2030 75
Figure 8-6: Historical and projected growth in demand for fossil fuels in the OECD and non-OECD, mboe per day, 1970 to 2030 76
Figure 8-7: Balance of OPEC supply and demand, million barrels per day, Q1 2011 to Q4 2012 76
Figure 8-8: Monthly averages of clean spot freight rates 78
Figure 8-9: Typical supply curve for a given size of fleet 79
Figure 8-10: Ship new build and five year asset value since 2000 80
Figure 8-11: Unconventional and conventional gas production costs, USD per GJ, 2008 82
Figure 8-12: Costs for new oil supply 83
Figure 8-13: Resources to Reserves – Production Cost Curve (including a carbon tax of USD 50 per tonne CO2 equivalent emissions) 84
Figure 8-14: Historical and projected natural gas prices, USD per MMBtu, 1987 to 2025 85
Figure 8-15: Number of electric vehicles in use in the US, 1992 to 2008 91
Figure 8-16: Retail motor gasoline prices in selected countries, USD per gallon, 1990 to 2009 92
Figure 8-17: Tailings pond 95
Figure 8-18: Closing share price for BP, USD, 18th December 2009 to 18th August 2011 98
Figure 8-19: Closing share price for Halliburton and Transocean, USD, 18th December 2009 to 18th August 2011 98
Figure 8-20: Closing share price for Exxon, USD, 25th January 1988 to 25th July 1992 99
Figure 8-21: Closing share price for TEPCO, USD, 11th January 2010 to 11th August 2011 .
Figure 8-22: Coverage of Duke Energy and Progress Energy 101
Figure 8-23: Projected oil demand and projected oil supply from existing fields, million barrels per day, 2000 to 2030 105
Figure 8-24: Oil and gas target of Supermajors and Petrobras, thousand barrels per day, 2000 to 2020 105
Figure 8-25: Forecast oil prices and the Petrobras business plan 2010 to 2014, USD per barrel, 1990 to 2030 106
Figure 8-26: Shell’s global unconventional gas projects 107
Figure 9-1: Price development of crude oil and kerosene, USD per tonne, 2008 to 2010 119
Figure 9-2: Oil price scenario 2010 and the hedged price for Lufthansa as of February 2011, USD per barrel 119