Smart Technology Report – Market Research Table of Contents

What are the leading causes of today’s energy shortages? What role does energy security play? Are new developments in energy efficiency and energy storage the answer? This report discusses some of the emerging smart technologies that will address generation capacity shortfalls. These smart technologies include developments in energy storage and energy efficiency.

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1. Introduction to smart technology 14
2. Executive Summary 15
3. Energy Security 16
4. Power generation capacity 18
5. Growing Energy Shortage 30: Oil 30; Natural Gas 37; Oil and Gas 42; Coal 45; Biomass 46; Hydro 47; Uranium 47
6. The Grid 48: Power Demand 48; Base load 49; Peak load 49; Intermediate load 49; Renewables 50; Renewable Portfolio Standards 51; Renewable Issues and the grid 53; Intermittency and variability 53; Capacity factor 53; Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) 54; Capacity credit 54; Spinning reserve 55
7. Renewables 56: Integration costs 57; Balancing supply and demand 59; Import/export electricity 60; Demand response 61; Back up 62; Storage 62
8. Current state of storage 63: Investment 65; Development 67; Economics 69
9. Storage Technologies 75: Mechanical Storage 75; Pumped storage 75; Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) 83; Flywheel 92; Electrochemical storage 94; Batteries 95; Lead-acid batteries 98; Advanced lead-acid batteries 99; Lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries 99; Nickel cadmium (NiCd) batteries 103; Nickel-metal hydride (NMH) batteries 104; Sodium sulphur (NaS) batteries 104; Sodium Nickel Chloride (NaNiCl) batteries 105; Flow batteries 106; Capacitor 108; Electric double-layer capacitor system 108; Electromagnetic storage 111; Superconducting Magnetic Energy Storage (SMES) 111; Fuel cells 113; Hydrogen Fuel Cell 114; Electric vehicles 120; Start-stop market 154; Thermal storage 171; Concentrating Solar Power 172; Parabolic Trough 172; Parabolic Dish Systems 173; Central Receiver Systems – Solar Tower 173; Solar Chimney Power Plants 174; Types of storage 176; Sensible heat storage 176; Concrete 176; Molten salt 176; Latent heat storage/phase change materials 178; Inorganic PCMs 179; Organic PCMs 179; Development of TES for CSP 180; Single-tank Thermocline 181; Direct molten-salt heat transfer fluid 181; Hot/Cold storage 181
10. Energy Efficiency Products 183: Power generation 183; Siemens 183; Alphabet Energy 184; Echogen Power Systems 184; Electra Therm 185; Ener G Rotors 186; GMZ Energy 186; Ormat 187; O-Flexx Technologies 188; Phononic Devices 188; Pratt & Whitney 188; Recycled Energy Development (RED) 189; Transphorm 189; Transportation sector 190; Ecomotors 190; Transonic Combustion 191; XL Hybrids 192; Residential, industrial and commercial industries 192; Automated monitoring and targeting (AM&T) 193; Boiler controls 193; Building management systems (BMS) 193; Advanced Telemetry 193; Enistic 193; EnOcean 194; PassivSystems 195; Powerhouse Dynamics 197; Demand response management (demand management) 197; Comverge 198; HVAC (heating, ventilation and air conditioning) controls 199; BuildingIQ 199; Suntulit 200; Insulation 201; Aspen Aerogels 201; Ecovative 201; eTime energy 202; Guardian 202; Indow Windows 202; Lighting 202; Azzurro 204; Bridgelux 204; d.light design 204; Digital Lumens 206; EcoFit 207; EcoSpark 207; Kateeva 208; Kaneeka 208; Lattice Power 208; Lemnis Lighting 208; Lumiette 209; Lumiotec 210; Luxim 210; Novalex 210; Osram Sylvania 210; Lighting daylight phasing control 210; Adura Technologies 211; Encelium 212; Lumenergi 214; Redwood Systems 214; Lighting occupancy control 215; Adura Technologies 215; Encelium 215; Sensor Switch 216; Remote energy controls 216; Tenrehte Technologies 216; Thinkeco 217; Variable speed devices (VSD) 217; Voltage power optimisation 217; powerPerfector 218; Vphase 218; Other 218; THT Heat Transfer Technology 218; Xergy 218; Multinational companies with multiple energy efficiency products 221; Eaton 221; GE 221; Honeywell 227; Johnsons Controls 227; Panasonic 229; Philips 230; Wireless Kinetically Powered Energy Devices 231; Wireless Solar Powered Photosensor 231; Occupancy Sensing Compatibility 231; Intelligent Transceiver 231; MesoOptics® 233; Schneider Electric 233; Siemens 233; Energy efficient models of conventional products 234; Data centres 234; Core4 Systems 234; Sentilla 234; Dryers 235; Hydromatic Technologies 235; Heating and cooling 235; Calmac 236; Coolerado 236; Climate Well 239; Hitachi 239; IceCycle 239; Ice Energy 239; MagLev Retrofit Solutions 240; Windows and glass 241; Sage Electronics 241; Serious Energy 241; Soladigm 241; New Energy Technologies 241
11. Sources 242

List of Tables

Table 4 1: Electricity supply disruptions for the first three quarters of 2011 18
Table 4 2: Ofgem’s four scenarios for the electricity grid in the UK 26
Table 4 3: Impact of different stresses for Ofgem’s four grid scenarios 27
Table 6 1: Three main types of electricity demand 50
Table 6 2: Typical capacity factors for different generating technologies 53
Table 7 1: Variability factors for intermittent renewable energy sources 56
Table 7 2: Summary of US wind integration cost studies 58
Table 8 1: Energy storage technologies by development status 68
Table 8 2: R&D Timelines for Emerging Energy Storage Options 68
Table 8 3: Latest prices for energy storage in Great Britain and Germany 70
Table 8 4: Energy storage technologies 70
Table 8 5: Energy storage characteristics by application 71
Table 8 6: Projected incremental energy delivery cost at 7% discount rate in USD 90 million facilities (ignoring energy cost) for 2015 technology 73
Table 8 7: Comparison of bulk storage systems 73
Table 9 1: Typical values for various pumped-storage plants 77
Table 9 2: Status of selected pumped storage projects at the end of 2010 80
Table 9 3: CAES plants in operation or planned 85
Table 9 4: Comparison of CAES systems 86
Table 9 5: Comparison of batteries 96
Table 9 6: Comparison of different battery energy storage systems 97
Table 9 7: Selected battery energy storage plants in use 98
Table 9 8: Lithium-ion battery characteristics by chemistry 102
Table 9 9: Comparison of the applications of SMES systems 111
Table 9 10: Fuel cell types 114
Table 9 11: Comparison of net storage capacities of large scale storage technologies 119
Table 9 12: International support for fuel cells 120
Table 9 13: Regulations on fuel economy and CO2 emissions in the US and EU 120
Table 9 14: Key differences between PHEVs and BEVs 122
Table 9 15: Specifications of several plug-in vehicles sold or expected to be sold in 2011 123
Table 9 16: Plug-in Vehicle Tracker 129
Table 9 17: Manufacturers of BEV/PHEVs and partnering battery manufacturers 150
Table 9 18: Incentives for electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and low emission vehicles 159
Table 9 19: US state incentives for electric vehicle 163
Table 9 20: Key Data and Figures for Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid and Battery Electric Vehicles 168
Table 9 21: Comparison of the main CSP technologies 175
Table 9 22: Sensible storage materials, solid and liquid, temperature, average heat capacity and media cost 177
Table 9 23: Selected low temperature inorganic salt hydrate PCMs 178
Table 9 24: Selected low temperature inorganic salt hydrate PCMs , with melting points 179
Table 9 25: Selected low temperature organic PCMs , with melting points 180
Table 10.1: Ormat’s recovered energy generation projects 187
Table 10.2: Electricity consumption and potential electrical energy savings in the UK service sector 203
Table 10.3: Comparison of Lemnis Pharox bulbs to existing light bulbs 208
Table 10.4: Comparison of Lumiette’s XCELLUME™ with compact fluorescent lighting 209
Table 10.5: Comparison of Lumiette’s XCELLUME™ with incandescent lighting 210
Table 10.6: GE’s energy efficient products 223
Table 10.7: Coolerado air conditioning products 238

Figures

Figure 3 1: Supply chain in the gas sector 16
Figure 4 1: Actual and projected world electricity, capacity, generation and consumption, MW, 1990 to 2050 20
Figure 4 2: Actual and projected electricity generation and consumption in the G8 and BRIC countries, MW, 1990 to 2020 21
Figure 4 3: Actual and projected electricity generation and consumption in North America, Europe, Asia Pacific and Middle East, MW, 1990 to 2020 23
Figure 4 4: Actual and projected world generation capacity by type, MW, 1990 to 2020 25
Figure 4 5: Peak load reduction and utility costs per energy saved, 1989 to 2008 26
Figure 4 6: Key timings for projects to fulfil future shortfalls in the UK’s electricity sector 28
Figure 5 1: Oil production and consumption, thousand barrels per day, 1965 to 2010 30
Figure 5 2: Oil refining capacity, throughput and oil consumption and production, thousand barrels per day, 1965 to 2010 31
Figure 5 3: Refining margins in US Gulf Coast (USGC), North West Europe (NWE – Rotterdam) and Singapore for different generic refinery configuration (cracking, hydrocracking or coking), USD per barrel, Q1 1992 to Q4 2010 32
Figure 5 4: Oil production in thousand barrels and proven reserves in billion barrels in OPEC and major non-OPEC countries at the end of 2010 33
Figure 5 5: Proven oil reserves in North America and in Major European producing countries, billion barrels, 1980 to 2010 34
Figure 5 6: Proven oil reserves by region, billion barrels, 1980 to 2010 34
Figure 5 7: Net crude oil and oil product trade movements in 2010, thousand barrels per day 35
Figure 5 8: Net oil imports for the US and Europe, thousand barrels per day, 1980 to 2010 35
Figure 5 9: Global biofuel production, thousand barrels per day, 2000 to 2010 36
Figure 5 10: Natural gas production and consumption, bcm, 1970 to 2010 37
Figure 5 11: Proven natural reserves by region, tcm, 1980 to 2010 38
Figure 5 12: Natural gas production and consumption in the US and Russia, bcm, 1970 to 2010 39
Figure 5 13: Actual and projected share of primary energy by fuel type, 1970 to 2030 41
Figure 5 14: Natural gas production and consumption in China and India, bcm, 1970 to 2010 42
Figure 5 15: Oil and gas consumption and imports as a percentage of consumption for China, Europe and the US, 1990 to 2030 43
Figure 5 16: China’s territorial claim in the South China Sea 44
Figure 5 17: Global coal production and consumption, Mtoe, 1981 to 2010 45
Figure 5 18: Indian coal production and consumption, Mtoe, 1981 to 2010 46
Figure 5 19: Global nuclear consumption based on gross generation, Mtoe, 1965 to 2010 47
Figure 6 1: Base, Intermediate and Peak Load by time of day 50
Figure 6 2: Influence of wind power on power control margin at night 51
Figure 6 3: RPS policies and goals in the US states 52
Figure 6 4: Capacity factors by month for wind power for Denmark, Sweden, Germany and the Netherlands 54
Figure 7 1: Output of large PV plant over one day, with rapid variability due to clouds 56
Figure 7 2: Output from wind turbines during the day with storage capacity 57
Figure 7 3: Smoothing effect of wind power in Germany 59
Figure 7 4: Flexibility supply curve 60
Figure 7 5: Balancing demand and supply through the interconnected grid 61
Figure 7 6: Obstacles to energy storage and demand response 62
Figure 8 1: Worldwide current installed capacity, MW 63
Figure 8 2: Storage technologies by capacity 64
Figure 8 3: Positioning of Energy Storage Technologies 64
Figure 8 4: Worldwide installed storage capacity for electrical energy at the end of 2010, MW 65
Figure 8 5: Grid-scale and all storage deals, 2006 to 2010 65
Figure 8 6: Energy Storage IPOs, 2006 to 2010 66
Figure 8 7: Venture investment in clean tech sector by quarter, Q4 2009 to Q1 2011 67
Figure 9 1: Energy storage applications and technologies 75
Figure 9 2: Principle of pumped hydro storage systems 76
Figure 9 3: Diagram of a pumped storage configuration 76
Figure 9 4: Growth of adjustable speed pumped hydro 78
Figure 9 5: Underground pumped hydro 79
Figure 9 6: Cost breakdown of pumped hydro 80
Figure 9 7: Schematic of CAES plant with underground compressed air storage 84
Figure 9 8: Principle of the CAES system 84
Figure 9 9: CAES system in Huntorf, Germany 86
Figure 9 10: Salt structures and existing gas storage site in Europe 88
Figure 9 11: Overview of geological formations in continental US, showing potential CAES siting opportunities based on EPRI geologic studies 89
Figure 9 12: Energy Bag 90
Figure 9 13: Principle and structure of flywheel 93
Figure 9 14: Operational results of wind power with flywheel 93
Figure 9 15: Comparison of specifications of existing flywheel systems 94
Figure 9 16: Power density as a function of energy density for energy storage options 94
Figure 9 17: Idealised load and battery systems 95
Figure 9 18: Reaction Mechanism of Lead-based Cells 99
Figure 9 19: Specific energy and specific power of different battery types 100
Figure 9 20: Reaction Mechanism of Li-ion Cells 101
Figure 9 21: Future of the electric car and lithium ion battery markets 103
Figure 9 22: Nickel-Based Cells 104
Figure 9 23: Reaction Mechanism of Sodium-based Cells 106
Figure 9 24: ZBB Energy’s Zn/Br flow system 108
Figure 9 25: Principle of electric double-layer capacitor 109
Figure 9 26: Structures of capacitors 109
Figure 9 27: Principle of SMES 111
Figure 9 28: Structure of SMES system 112
Figure 9 29: Cost estimation of SMES as a function of stored energy 113
Figure 9 30: Fuel cell 114
Figure 9 31: Comparison of the Honda FXC Clarity with the BYD-E6 and Mitsubishi i-MiEV electric vehicles 116
Figure 9 32: Platinum prices, 1992 to 2011 117
Figure 9 33: Location of hydrogen production facilities in Europe 119
Figure 9 34: Comparison of different electric power train configurations 121
Figure 9 35: Cost of EVs and PHEVs over Conventional Vehicles 123
Figure 9 36: Passenger LDV sales by technology type and scenario, million sales per year 124
Figure 9 37: Annual global BEV and PHEV sales in BLUE Map scenario, passenger LDV sales millions, 2010 to 2050 125
Figure 9 38: Lithium-ion battery price forecast, USD per kWh 126
Figure 9 39: Development of alternative transportation options 127
Figure 9 40: Rollout of electric vehicle models 128
Figure 9 41: Electric vehicles and their expected launch date onto the US market 128
Figure 9 42: Government target and BEV/PHEV production/sales reported by Original Equipment Manufacturer 151
Figure 9 43: BEV/PHEV number of models offered and sales per model through 2020 152
Figure 9 44: Illustrative cost/benefit to implement hybridisation technologies 153
Figure 9 45: Additional capital cost of hybrid electric vehicles compared to conventional gasoline and diesel vehicles, EUR 154
Figure 9 46: Global market estimates for sales of start-stop or micro-hybrid units, thousand units, 2010 to 2015 155
Figure 9 47: XL Hybrid technology 156
Figure 9 48: Battery cost decline versus production 156
Figure 9 49: Projected cost of electric vehicle batteries in the US, USD, 2010 to 2030 157
Figure 9 50: Global transportation trend, million barrels per day of oil equivalent (mbdoe), 1980 to 2030 158
Figure 9 51: Aggregated national targets for BEV/PHEVs 159
Figure 9 52: Upfront Price Support for Low-Carbon Vehicles 166
Figure 9 53: Light-duty vehicle fuel economy 167
Figure 9 54: Public RD&D (Research, Development and Deployment) spending on BEV/PHEVs and vehicle efficiency in selected countries, 2010, USD million 167
Figure 9 55: Public spending on electric vehicle RD&D category for selected countries, USD million, 2008 to 2011 168
Figure 9 56: Parabolic trough 172
Figure 9 57: Parabolic dish reflector 173
Figure 9 58: Central receiver system 174
Figure 9 59: CESA-1 Central tower test facility at Plataforma de Almeira, Spain 175
Figure 9 60: Schematic for CSP plant with molten salt storage 177
Figure 10.1: Typical conventional central generation power plant 184
Figure 10. 2: Typical co-generation ‘combined heat and power’ plant 184
Figure 10.3: Echogen Power Systems’ ScCO2 Power Generating Cycle 200kWe – 300kWe (net) Heat Engine System 185
Figure 10.4: Organic Rankine Cycle 186
Figure 10.5: Waste heat recovery 189
Figure 10.6: Ecomotors’ opposition-piston opposed-cylinder engine 190
Figure 10.7: Illustrative cost/benefit to implement hybridisation technologies 192
Figure 10.8: XL Hybrid technology 192
Figure 10.9: Energy harvesting wireless sensor solution from EnOcean 194
Figure 10.10: Energy harvesting wireless sensor network 194
Figure 10.11: PassivSystems products 195
Figure 10.12: eMonitorTM c-Series system 197
Figure 10.13: BuildingIQ in action 200
Figure 10.14: Cost savings and CO2 savings for different energy efficient and renewable technologies 201
Figure 10.15: Average project payback time for different energy efficient building products in years 203
Figure 10.16: SD250 model 205
Figure 10.17: SD10 model 205
Figure 10.18: S1 model 206
Figure 10.19: EcoFit module 207
Figure 10.20: Encelium Energy Control System™ (ECS™) 213
Figure 10.21: Redwood Systems lighting platform 215
Figure 10.22: Tenrehte Technologies’ PICOwatt® device 216
Figure 10.23: Modlet 217
Figure 10.24: Snapshot of the GridConnect dashboard 228
Figure 10.25: Calmac’s ICEBANK® 236
Figure 10.26: How the Coolerado works 237
Figure 10.27: Ice Bear system 240